By Alfie Cairns Culshaw (Chief Editor)
After our deflating North London Derby draw last week, Tifo Football's Jon Mackenzie tweeted that Arsenal are 'the best out-of-possession team in the world'. Jon is a very well respected tactical analyst. We should listen to Jon.
When I decided to interrogate this claim myself, I couldn't help but agree. The data checks out; Arsenal's PPDA (opposition passes allowed per defensive action) is the second lowest in the league, meaning Arsenal win the ball back very quickly after losing it. We've also conceded the second lowest expected goals in the division, while allowing the second fewest opposition touches in our final third per 90. Both of these are marginally behind Manchester City, although Pep's side's PPDA is a lot higher, meaning they don't press as aggressively as us. The other top pressing sides based on PPDA are Brighton and Tottenham, both of whom possess significantly inferior defensive metrics to Arsenal. The third best defensive team is Newcastle, who, similarly to City, have a much higher PPDA. Thus, the data suggests that Arsenal are the only side in the league who can currently press extremely aggressively and effectively, whilst maintaining a secure defence that doesn't concede many chances.
The eye test also checks out. The feeling you get from watching Arsenal most of the time is that we suffocate the opposition, and that they rarely breach our final third with dangerous, sustained waves of attack. After losing the ball we feel very secure, and more often than not it feels as though we either allow them possession and they do very little with it because our shape is compact, or we regain the ball quickly.
I can't speak to the rest of the world, but given we are operating in the most difficult league on the planet, it feels as though Jon's claim might have some merit to it.
Last season, although we were still impressive out of possession, I definitely don't think you could herald us as the best out-of-possession outfit in the world. So, what has changed? Tactically, there have certainly been some altercations, but I'll leave that to Harvey Gration, who wrote an excellent piece recently breaking down Mikel Arteta's tactical switches this campaign.
Instead, I thought I'd take this opportunity to focus on our most divisive current player, Kai Havertz. I believe the German's introduction to the team is an important reason behind our improvement out of possession this season.
Havertz arrived in the summer having predominantly played as a false nine for Chelsea, and was earmarked as the man to replace Granit Xhaka, a double pivot six who had been converted into an attacking eight by Arteta in his final 18 months in North London. On the surface, the indicators would suggest Arsenal would be getting considerably more value in the final third, while losing some defensive stability. A striker replacing a natural deep-lying midfielder appeared a risky move for a side that had began to wilt defensively towards the backend of the previous season.
Of course, Havertz' arrival coincided with our other major personnel change in the side, Declan Rice replacing Thomas Partey. Rice, noticeably more athletic and defensively aware than the Ghanian, was supposed to offset some of the off-the-ball losses caused by Xhaka's departure. While Rice has provided this, what has actually happened is we've become significantly better in all facets and phases of play without the ball, but slightly more profligate in possession.
In reality, Xhaka's off the ball attributes were always over-praised. A few high-profile and memorable defensive actions, such as his immaculate last ditch block at St James' Park last season, gave off the perception of a player of substantial defensive acumen. Instead, Xhaka was regularly run past, lacked the athleticism to recover the ball when bypassed and was a weak and infrequent tackler. Part of Arteta's decision to move him further forward was to negate some of these defensive frailties, and this move proved successful.
On the other hand, Havertz' off the ball work is efficient and effective. The former Leverkusen man works exceptionally hard when we don't have the ball, is strong and aggressive in his duels, strong aerially, and is intelligent in his positioning to block passing lanes. He may not yet have produced an eye-catching late intervention to prevent a certain goal, but part of that is because he hasn't had to. Arsenal have been so prolific in their duels higher up the pitch, that there are few instances where teams have been able to forge their way into these dangerous areas where such an intervention would be necessary.
In terms of defensive output, the difference between Xhaka and Havertz is glaring; the Swiss was making 1.02 tackles per 90 minutes last season, while the German is making 2.6 per 90.
The question is, should we be aligning Havertz more with Xhaka's skillset and capabilities? Defensively, he's been a drastic upgrade. That's just not what he was perceived to be when he arrived at the club. If we saw him through the Granit Xhaka lens, our perception of Havertz would be significantly more positive than the current consensus around the player. We just expected a final third specialist.
The answer really lies with what Mikel Arteta expected from Havertz when he made this personnel change. Based on everything the Spaniard has said, he probably wanted an upgrade on both sides of the game. Arteta has regularly expressed how he wants less chaos and more control, which Havertz has helped to bring. However, deciphering some of Arteta's other comments, he also clearly felt that this was a position where an offensive upgrade could elevate the overall level of our attack. As of yet, it hasn't.
Havertz clearly hasn't delivered in the final third. We've not seen many of his trademark excellent runs into dangerous positions in the box or any of his aerial threat in these areas. We've seen little in the way of craft and invention in and around the penalty box. Confidence may have been an issue, and hopefully Saturday's opening goal will see some of that pressure lifted.
At the moment, Kai Havertz is doing half of what is expected from him. The problem for him is, in terms of the perception of his performances to the mainstream, is that he's producing on the less glamorous side of the game, where you need to squint to see it, and is stuff that many could argue does not require a £60 million player to do.
I don't think anyone thought he'd provide the elegant ball progression and retention of Granit Xhaka, but we expected increased goal threat and creativity. Now that he's off the mark, this side of his game has to start coming to fruition.
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