By Alfie Cairns Culshaw (Chief Editor)
Thank God, regular Premier League football is almost upon us once again. After a three-week period disrupted by the Queen's passing, rail strikers and an international break, the league we all love returns this Saturday as we begin our incredibly hectic schedule with one of the most anticipated North London Derby's in years.
This Spurs game proceeds a number of fixtures in a short space of time, packed in to accommodate for this winter's World Cup in Qatar. We play 13 matches in 43 days, with nine in the space of 30 within October. To put this into perspective, after this weekend, it's Thursday-Sunday for five weeks straight, before a Wednesday-Saturday to cap us off before the international tournament.
We play Spurs, Liverpool, Leeds, Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Chelsea and Wolves in the League, the remaining five games of our Europa League group and Brighton in the Carabao Cup. It's unprecedentedly congested, so it'll be fascinating to see how Mikel Arteta uses his squad. It'll be integral that he does so wisely.
In terms of goals and objectives for this period, we've got to look at our desired total point outcome for the end of the season. We've acquired 18 from 21 thus far, so two points per game from now until the end of the season would see us finish on 80 points. This would almost certainly put us in the top four in May, with a chance of being top 2/3.
That means we should be looking at a minimum of 14 points from these upcoming seven league games. Targeting wins at all three of Leeds, Southampton and Wolves (all of whom are inferior to us), as well as three points at the Emirates against Forest, would already give us 12 of the required 14. Then it's about what we can do in the three bigger games against Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea.
On paper, looking at these fixtures and the way in which we're playing at the moment, and more than these 14 points looks very achievable. However, this is where the congestion kicks in. While the three bigger sides we have to face will have the same congestion we have with Champions League football to contend with, the lesser sides will mostly have entire weeks in between games to rest and recuperate. We've already tallied up a series of muscular injuries so far this season, so there's bound to be more, while dips in form are inevitable throughout a campaign.
Arteta must manage his squad effectively. The Europa League will represent a chance to rotate, but due to the thinness of our squad, first choice players will have to play some minutes in Europe. For me, Arteta has to identify which of his players will not be risked in midweek at all. Players who won't be involved to any extent in European competition. I believe there are four, with Aaron Ramsdale being the first.
There are concerns over Matt Turner's ability on the ball, but as the Zurich game demonstrated, this ought to not really effect the outcome of our games, particularly against Bodo/Glimt and the reverse fixture against the Swiss side. We have the quality to outplay these calibre of sides quite comfortably, regardless of whether our goalkeeper is capable of clipping the ball to our full-backs with ease. Even if he is to give away a stupid goal, I'd back our ability to score several goals. On the shot-stopping side, everything I've read about Turner reassures me.
However, in the League, Ramsdale's distribution is such a fundamental facet to our build-up that I would be concerned if he's not available. That's why I feel there is absolutely no reason to risk him in Europe, so just give Turner all the minutes.
The next player that shouldn't play a minute in our Europa League group stage campaign is William Saliba. The Frenchman has established himself as an integral part of our back four, with his recovery pace key to our ability to play a high line, while his technical quality on the ball very important in our ability to retain and progress the ball. A combination of Ben White, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Gabriel Magalhaes, Rob Holding and Cedric Soares can fill the two centre-back spots and the right-back role in Europe for the time being.
Thomas Partey cannot play a minute in this competition. Mohamed Elneny's long-term injury has thrown a spanner in the works in terms of cover for the Ghanian. Elneny would've been the natural deputy to Partey, playing the Europa League minutes and allowing Sambi Lokonga to be trialled as the left-eight, but now the young Belgian must fulfil this role. We've essentially come to the point where you risk either Xhaka or Partey in the Europa League, and given the pairs' respective injury records, you'd feel a lot more comfortable fielding Xhaka.
Partey hardly spent any time sidelined with fitness problems at Atletico Madrid, but he also didn't play a substantial number of minutes. Across his time in Spain, he never played more than 28.3 90s in a single La Liga season. Atleti clearly spotted something in the 29-year-old's mechanical make-up and decided he needed to be closely managed. He played in the big games, but was often rested against lesser sides.
Partey struggles with his anaerobic work and this is reflected in the fact that he often fades towards the end of games. Making sure he plays no Europa League minutes until after Christmas is crucial, while even taking him off in League games we have wrapped up would be smart. We can't afford to lose him for a protracted period of the season again, such is his importance to our system, and I do feel if we manage him smartly then this is achievable. Unfortunately, he is a fragile player and should probably be replaced in future windows.
The final player that shouldn't feature is Gabriel Jesus. Probably our best player so far this season and clearly one of the most integral pieces in our jigsaw. Unfortunately he's likely to miss a game through suspension as he's just a yellow card away from a one-match ban, but we can protect him in midweek games.
Granit Xhaka is going to have to play Europa League minutes, and he's proven he can cope with this workload in the past, while Bukayo Saka will also likely have to play minutes in this competition. Given the sparsity of senior wingers Arteta has at his disposal, Saka will play, but hopefully just a handful of cameo appearances. The likes of Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard will also likely feature on a handful of occasions in these Europa League fixtures, but that's less of a concern given the adequate cover we have for the pair in Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira.
Rotating heavily in Europe will be pivotal and backing the squad players to come in and win these games is a show of faith Arteta needs to and probably should have. The games against PSV may well determine who wins the group and ultimately avoids an additional knockout round, so slightly stronger line-ups against the Dutch side would make sense, and can be afforded as they sandwich the Southampton game, rather than one of the bigger ones.
Aside from rotating, another imperative component in dealing with the schedule would potentially be to slightly adapt the way we play. We've been excellent so far this season, so you wouldn't want us to modify this system in any way , but perhaps in game we can make slight tactical tweaks.
We are currently one of the most intense sides in the league and this is reflected in the PPDA stats (Passes per Defensive Action). We have a very low PPDA, which means we work hard to win the ball back as quickly as possible and do so frequently. If we find ourselves comfortably in the lead within games, perhaps reducing our intensity to protect our players fitness would be a sensible approach. Again, you don't want to take anything away from our effective style of play, but in certain game states common sense could be applied.
Also, make better use of our substitutions, Mikel. The Spaniard has been reluctant to use all five thus far, and often waits until the latter stages to make any, but this must and most likely will change as the fixtures begin to pile up.
It's going to be absolutely hectic, but as a fanatic, "I will love it and I think I deserve".
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