By Rob Worthington (Deputy Editor)
In January 2021 I sat down to write a Twitter thread explaining why Martin Ødegaard was the perfect short-term solution to Arsenal’s creative woes of the time. Lo and behold, a few days later, the Gunners made a move to sign the Norway midfielder. Fast forward to September of 2023 and not only is Ødegaard still an Arsenal player, but he’s also the club captain. On top of that, he’s also developed from a shot-shy 21-year-old playmaker into one of the Premier League’s most ruthless goal scoring midfielders. But how exactly has he changed? People have taken note of his inclination to take shots on goal more often, but has he become less creative? Let’s take a look. Before taking a look at his current output, we’ll take a look at Ødegaard’s 2019/20 loan spell with Real Sociedad. You’ll likely remember the midfielder returned to his parent club Real Madrid for the first half of the 2020/21 season, but his most recent regular playing time before coming to Arsenal came with Sociedad. With Sociedad, Ødegaard wasn’t the out and out creator many believed Arsenal were signing when he joined on loan in the winter of 2021, but he posted a healthy return in that regard during his spell with the LaLiga outfit. He registered 6 assists in the 2019/20 season from 28.1 90s. Along the way he also picked up 6.5 expected assisted goals (0.23/90). With Sociedad, he also crossed the ball fairly regularly, averaging just over 4/90, he was performing 4.77 shot-creating actions/90, and he was producing 0.68 goal creating actions/90. 0.46 of those goal creating actions came from open play passes. During his loan spell and first full season with Arsenal, his output remained pretty similar, suggesting his style of play changed little when he first joined the Premier League. With Sociedad, he performed 2.21 key passes/90 (passes leading to shots). In 2021/22 with Arsenal, he produced 2.49/90. However, during his time at Sociedad, Ødegaard scored just 4 goals. He was also taking under 2 shots/90. This is where we’ve seen the most impression from the Norway international team captain at Arsenal. Ødegaard scored a record-breaking 15 goals for a player operating in his position last term, none from the penalty spot. He was shooting more than ever, 2.68/90. The sample size is small, but that number has increased further this term. He’s had 13 shots on goal so far this season, up to 3.33 shots per game. This is a player operating with a level of confidence he has never had before in his professional career. He carries himself with swagger and as captain of Arsenal Football Club he is happy to take the burden of responsibility. If his team is in trouble, he is often visibly the man doing the most to get them out of it. And contrary to what some have been suggesting on Twitter in recent times, me included, his creative numbers have not taken a hit. His creative game may not have improved in the same way his goal scoring rate has. But last season was a typical creative season for Ødegaard in terms of shot-creating actions. What has changed ever so slightly is how he is providing shooting opportunities for his teammates. Prior to last season, almost all his shot-creating actions came from open-play passes, 4.17/90 in his first full season at the club. This changed last season, dropping to 3.54. Last season he continued a trend which began to appear ever so slightly in his game during the 2020/21 campaign, creating shooting opportunities by taking on shots himself. 0.35 of 4.69 shot-creating actions/90 last season came from shots of his own, up from the 0.14/90 he produced during his loan spell with Sociedad. It must be stressed that these are respectable creative numbers rather than exceptional, especially for a player who pops up in the no. 10 position so frequently. He is not a chance-creating machine like Bruno Fernandes, but his offensive game has proven to be more rounded than his Portuguese counterpart’s. It'll be interesting to see how Ødegaard’s numbers evolve this season because his production is more akin to that of a second striker rather than a midfielder at the moment. It’d be naïve to make any sweeping judgements based on a 4-match sample size, but he’s progressing the ball less as he’s receiving it more frequently higher up the pitch. He’s also carrying the ball into the final third considerably more than he ever has done as an Arsenal player. In addition to that, as already alluded to, he is shooting at a rate he never has done and his shot creation from passing is down considerably. Many have noted he also took plenty of shots for Norway against Georgia on Tuesday night, it’s something he clearly feels confident doing right now. But before we fully conclude Ødegaard is more of a goal-scoring midfielder than a creator, we need to see Arsenal in calmer game states. In Arsenal’s last 2 Premier League games, they have been playing emergency football on a consistent basis. Fighting tooth and nail to grab a goal. This isn’t the way Mikel Arteta wants his team playing. When Arsenal begin cruising to victories as they’re underlying numbers suggest they will sooner rather than later, we’ll be able to better define what Martin Ødegaard is as a midfielder in 2023.
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