By Mac Johnson (Deputy Editor)
When Arsenal announced their lineup before our recent fixture against Everton at Goodison Park, you could have sworn a bomb had gone off. Pundits, fans, and ITK's (read: plastics) alike were all aflutter, because of one specific change. Mikel Arteta handed David Raya his first Arsenal appearance, above Arsenal's beloved Aaron Ramsdale.
From ex-pro's to internet personalities, everybody had to chip in their ten cents. Stephen Warnock on the US broadcast was diving into Ramsdale's body language during warmups, calling him lazy and upset. A Radio Five host took a conversation, hands over mouths, between Pickford and Ramsdale as a rant against Arteta, never mind both players being fresh of an England camp. British pundits everywhere were throwing their weight behind Ramsdale, proclaiming him the better player, and decrying Arteta's decision to start his new toy.
So why did Arteta make such a controversial swap? And why exactly has it caused such a massive uproar?
Well, in my mind, there are two alternatives. Either Ramsdale has slipped up somehow and cost himself the No. 1 spot on the team, or Mikel has done what all managers with two players of quality in the same position must: rotate.
Nobody raises an eyebrow when Roberto De Zerbi swaps his 'keepers around. In their opening 5 Premier League fixtures, Brighton's manager has started Jason Steele 3 times, and Bart Verbruggen twice. But the Italian is known for being bold and flexible with his tactics, so he gets a free pass. But putting Arsenal in a headline generates controversy, so Arteta is not afforded the same level of respect.
I believe that this great controversy has been caused because of antiquated ideas about goalkeepers. People like to pretend that goalies are like the Sith, where the must be one master and one apprentice. A No. 1 and a No. 2. Well folks, this isn't a galaxy far far away. Football is a sport of innovation, and the outcry about Ramsdale and Raya hearkens back to the Dark Ages.
For those questioning why Ramsdale was dropped, I'll extend a few queries your way. Have you seen Ramsdale make any mistakes or perform so poorly that he deserves to be removed and demoted to a No. 2 role? Is Aaron Ramsdale worse than David Raya by a significant amount? The answer to both of those questions is no, so there must be another reason why Ramsdale did not start against Everton.
And for that, I would like to posit two theories. First, as illustrated by statistics, Raya is better suited in his playstyle to face Everton. But second, about two hours after this is published, Arsenal kick off against PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League. Ramsdale was a big part of Arsenal's qualification last season, and therefore deserves to start as we look to conquer Europe's biggest stage. How would it look to David Raya if he was ignored once against Everton and twice against PSV? He'd start feeling a whole lot like Matty Turner, who joined Nottingham Forest because he couldn't get the minutes.
Let's dive into the statistics. I'd like all of you lovely readers to pretend for a second that Arteta is right to rotate his 'keepers. Ignore all of the folks who say that goalies cannot be rotated because of players' confidence and relationships on the pitch—it's not like they train together—and whatever else might come up. If we treat a goalkeeper like we would an outfielder, then the question of "who starts" boils down to individual fit. In other words, who is better suited to the match at hand.
Below are Raya and Ramsdale's statistical profiles for the last year, with Ramsdale on the left and Raya on the right. It would be unfair of me to solely use the data from the Everton match to represent Raya—he has a 100% save percentage and a clean sheet. Instead, I want to look as Arteta would: at the traits which set the two players apart, and the underlying data which supports it. All data is provided by FBREF.
Let's start with shot-stopping, and take a deeper look at Post-shot Expected Goals, and PSxG-Goals Against. In the last year, Ramsdale has faced fewer expected goals per 90 than Raya, but the chances he sees have been of greater quality, as shown by PSxG/Shot on Target. But, when it comes to goals prevented, he actually concedes marginally more than he is expected to.
Raya, on the other hand, has faced more expected goals from a greater volume of lower-quality chances, but he is among the world's best (98th percentile) at preventing goals from being scored given the chances he concedes. He also has a higher save percentage by about 10%. Neither goalkeeper tends to concede often, but in a game where Arsenal are expected to stifle a majority of the opposition's attacks, and concede lower-quality chances, it makes sense that Raya would start.
What about distribution? Well, Ramsdale likes to play the ball short (over 50 percent of the time) whereas Raya is an excellent long distributor, and prefers to play the long ball both in possession and from goal kicks. The preferred distribution style of your goalkeeper has a massive influence on tactical setup, and the different ways to beat a press in buildup phases.
Against teams who play aggressively, or against whom we will be able to play the ball up the middle of the park, Ramsdale might seem a better choice. Whereas against teams that sit deeper and try to clog up the center, a 'keeper who excels at picking passes wide and long, in Raya, would be the better option.
And finally, let's look at crosses, which are more clear-cut. Ramsdale has faced very few crosses, but he doesn't tend to stop or claim many. Raya, on the other hand, is an excellent claimer of crosses, having faced a far greater volume while at Brentford. So against Everton, who play with height and physicality, try to clog up the middle of the park, will likely be suffocated by Arsenal and thereby sit deeper, and generate chances via crosses, David Raya is the obvious choice to start.
So now, on the eve of this UCL tie, let's all take a deep breath. There is not a crisis abounding. Raya was excellent against Everton, and Ramsdale has been roundly excellent this season. We have two keepers who are nearly world-class at Arsenal. To not let each of them shine and develop in their own right would be a waste of talent.
Of course, this is not a stagnant conversation. If Raya starts against PSV, then it changes entirely. And when the North London Derby rolls around next Sunday, I'm sure the public will be up in arms, regurgitating this week's hysteria to try and make a story. But as for me, I'm comfortable believing that Ramsdale and Raya are simply, pragmatically, and effectively being rotated. And for what's more, I'm all for it. Thanks for reading!
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