By Alfie Cairns Culshaw (Chief Editor)
We've done it. We've got to the international break and thus the mystical 'run-in'. We've arrived here eight points clear at the top of the Premier League. So many had feared that our season would tail off in light of Gabriel Jesus' three month absence, but here we are, in virtually the same position as prior to our Brazilian's knee injury. Losing your best player for three months would usually at least somewhat hinder your title ambitions, but this Arsenal team have found multiple ways of dealing without their star man.
At first, Eddie Nketiah provided some of the overall contribution that Jesus brings to us, with additional goals, and that was enough for a period of five to six games. This got stale when our opponents started sitting deeper and deeper, and eventually new signing Leandro Trossard was introduced as a 'false nine' of sorts, and has reignited what was a stagnating attack. Now, Jesus has returned and he faces a fight to get back into the side over the Belgian (although we'd all expect him to get back in quite quickly).
There is often a lot of talk about when the 'run-in' actually commences. Of course, it's a notional concept, but if I was to identify a point in which things start to feel 'run-iny', it would be after this exhaustive international break. The team and coaches get two weeks off from the emotionally intense season, are able to dwell on aspects of their game/system that could be tightened up for some late marginal gains and return for what really feels like the final stretch of a long campaign. The jeopardy and stakes in each game from this point on feel substantial, with the joyous carefree attitude from prior to the interlul well and truly dissipated. Every tiny detail and every single point is absolutely integral.
This notional run-in also provides a catalyst for one of football's great cliches at this time of year- "we've got (insert how many games left) cup-finals to play". Every game feels like a must-win, with such a huge accolade on the line which demands such minimal margin for error, meaning each individual match can be equated to a final. Arsenal have ten cup finals remaining. Ten more stress-inducing, heart palpating 90 minutes.
Given the recommencement of the Premier League after this interlul represents the beginning of the run-in, we're now at a stage where the fixtures that both us and City have left are different enough to warrant looking at and assessing. We will be making our predictions for the end of the season on Monday's Arsenal Cannon Podcast, so I though prior to that inevitable forecasting shitshow, this piece would be a good opportunity to evaluate our fixture schedule and City's.
We currently sit on 69 points points having played 28 games, while our Northern rivals have amassed 61 points from 27 matches. Very simply, if Manchester City win all of their remaining games, they'll finish the season on 94 points. In order for us to attain 95, we'd need 26 points from a possible 30, meaning if we just won all of our games apart from our trip to City, we'd win the title. We should just do that in my opinion.
To look at it more forensically, I've tried to metricise our fixtures into some sort of system. Looking at the table, there are four separate groups emerging:
The title challenges- Arsenal and City.
The Europe chasers- United, Spurs, Newcastle, Liverpool, Brighton and Brentford.
The mid-tablers- Fulham, Chelsea and Villa.
The Relegation battlers- Palace, Wolves, Leeds, Everton, Forest, Leicester, West Ham, Bournemouth, Southampton.
Of course, there are variations in quality in each group, but the underlying metrics suggest there isn't too much in each section to separate them further. Having almost half the league fighting the threat of relegation is far from ideal when you're trying to win the title, given each of those sides are fighting for their lives, but I almost think we've reached the stage where us and City are too good for that too matter. This isn't like last season when we were fighting for Champions League football and everyone could see vulnerabilities in us. Teams at the bottom of the table now almost see fixtures against us as a write off, and will take them as a free hit. Although this lifts the pressure off of those opponents, it also reduces their desperate desire for points in those fixtures.
In order to metricise these fixtures, I've assigned each group a difficulty rating, starting with four points for the title challengers' fixtures, three for the Europe chasers, two for the mid-tablers and one for the Relegation battlers. To add further context, I've added 0.5 for each away game.
However, I don't think even this truly encapsulates the fixture schedule analysis. The stats guys on Twitter have detailed algorithms for working this stuff out, but personally I'd prefer to do this in a more simplistic and easy to understand way. A key difference between Arsenal and City's schedules is that Arsenal have fewer games to play, with City still competing in the Champions League and FA Cup. Thus, I've added 0.5 to City's games following their Champions League Quarter-Final ties with Bayern Munich, and 0.25 to the game after their FA Cup semi-final with Sheffield United (which is us). I've also added 0.25 to games which follow another league game just three or four days later. It's almost a futile system, but I just thought it'd provide some insight and clarity into our schedules.
Of course, if City get past Bayern, it'll make some future fixtures even harder. For the purpose of this model and for making us all feel more at ease, I'm adding 0.25 for fixtures played after when a semi-final would be played. I've also had to find dates where their fixtures against West Ham and Brighton (which were postponed due to cup involvements) are likely to be played. So, here we go.
Arsenal:
1st April - Leeds (H) - Difficulty Rating - 1
9th April - Liverpool (A) - Difficulty Rating - 3.5
16th April - West Ham (A) - Difficulty Rating - 1.5
21st April - Southampton (H) - Difficult Rating - 1
26th April - City (A) - Difficulty Rating - 4.5
29th April - Chelsea (H) - Difficulty Rating - 2.25
6th May - Newcastle (A) - Difficulty Rating - 3.5
13th May - Brighton (H) - Difficulty Rating - 3
20th May - Forest (A) - Difficulty Rating - 1.5
28th May - Wolves (H) - Difficulty Rating - 1
Total Rating: 22.75
Man City:
1st April- Liverpool (H) - Difficulty Rating - 3
8th April - Southampton (A) - Difficulty Rating - 1.5
11th April - Bayern (H)
15th April - Leicester (H) - Difficulty Rating - 1.25
19th April - Bayern (A)
22nd April - Sheffield United (N)
26th April - Arsenal (H) - Difficulty Rating - 4.25
30th April - Fulham (A) - Difficulty Rating - 2.75
3rd May (TBC) - West Ham (H) - Difficulty Rating - 1.25
6th May - Leeds (H) - Difficulty Rating - 1.25
9th May (TBC) - Chelsea/Real Madrid (A)
13th May - Everton (A) - Difficulty Rating - 1.75
17th May (TBC)- Chelsea/Real Madrid (H)
20th May - Chelsea (H) - Difficulty Rating - 2.25
23rd May (TBC) - Brighton (A) - 3.75
28th May - Brentford (A) - 3.5
Total Rating: 26.5
As is clearly demonstrated, the schedule looks significantly more favourable to us. Even removing the burden of City's potential Champions League semi-final, our total rating is still considerably lower than theirs. This also doesn't take into account that some of Arsenal's opponents will have played in mid-week when we face them, while we'll have had a full week's rest. If City do progress beyond the last eight in Europe, they'll face not a single free mid-week aside from the first one straight after the international break. In comparison, we will play just once in midweek, with that being the showdown at the Etihad.
With regards to that huge encounter, Arsenal will play four league games prior to it, three of which are against relegation battlers, while City will play just three league games, two of which are relegation battlers, while they also face both legs of the Bayern tie and their semi-final at Wembley. Both teams play Liverpool in that period pre-showdown. The outcome of the meetings with Jurgen Klopp's team will be monumental to the holistic outlook on the title race come that allusive Etihad battle.
If Arsenal can come through that four-game period after the interlul unscathed, they may have a huge opportunity to pull away from City and ease the tension with a positive result at the Etihad.
As you can see, I've indulged in this far too much, and in writing this piece, my stress levels have risen significantly. This meticulous analysis of fixtures is all a bit over the top and unnecessary, but I hope it's also provided some serenity amidst the trepidation. We can do this.
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