By Alfie Cairns Culshaw (Chief Editor)
Let me cast your mind back to October 2022. Arsenal were top of the league going into the World Cup break, playing at a 100 point pace and were flying on all cylinders. This was all thanks to, in part, an attack that had been transformed by the elusive Gabriel Jesus.
Fast forward 18 months, and according to reliable Athletic journalist, James McNicholas, Arsenal are ready to part ways with Jesus, if they are to receive a suitable offer in the summer.
So, what’s happened to the Brazilian? How have we found ourselves in the position where he’s deemed surplus to requirements, after having been absolutely essential to our system functioning not that long ago?
And are Arsenal correct in their stance of being willing to shift him on if an acceptable offer comes in?
Firstly, I think it’s important for me to say that I’ve always been a strong advocate for the player. I’ve battled long and hard in discussions surrounding his poor finishing, desperately defending him as I’ve always felt he offers so much to the team and still manages to get chances at a rate where he can still contribute as a reliable goalscorer. So, it’s fair to say I may not be the most impartial, but I will say that my beliefs on the player have changed somewhat in recent months.
With a recurring knee injury continuing to plague him and a slightly different profile of striker in Kai Havertz thriving in our system, I’ve begun to accept that Jesus may not be the indispensable cog I once thought he was.
I’ll admit, when he joined, I fell in love with the player, and his first three months at the club merely justified this love. As a fanbase we’d become accustomed to an ageing Alex Lacazette, who’s physical capacity had diminished to the extent that when he was tasked with dropping deep and facilitating the build-up, he was completely incapable of also then finding himself in the box as a goal threat.
Jesus came in and could do both, and more. He was exceptional at dropping in and linking the play, he could peel wide and combine with the wingers, and his incredible feet and close control meant his dribbling in tight spaces was both exciting to watch and effective. His pressing and defensive work was better than anything I’ve ever seen in a striker and meant our press as a side became considerably more cohesive, and I believe was a big reason for our drastic improvements last season.
And whilst doing all this, he was also a massive goal threat. His 0.58 non-penalty expected goals per 90 last season placed him in the 92nd percentile for this metric, meaning he was getting a good number of high quality chances, in the top 8% for strikers in Europe’s top five leagues.
Yes, his finishing wasn’t great, comfortably underperforming his xG, but the volume of chances he was getting meant he still finished the season with 11 league goals. This may not sound like a particularly impressive goal tally, but he did miss three months through injury, and finished the campaign with 0.48 goals per 90, a goal almost every other game, placing him in the 75th percentile.
While posting a goalscoring rate in the top 25% for Europe’s top five league strikers isn’t elite, it was an acceptable rate given everything else he offered that contributed to us scoring more league goals than we’ve ever scored in a season.
He was providing a good number of goals but was also the pivotal focal point that allowed everything else in our attack to flourish. He had transformed us.
Things have changed now, however.
I mentioned injuries there, and that’s the best place to start in answering the question as to how everything went downhill.
During the hectic month of October 2022, in which Arsenal played a staggering 9 games, reports have indicated that Jesus began to feel pain in his knee. He played through it out of a desire to not be ruled out of the World Cup. However, just a couple of games into that tournament, it became apparent that he could no longer play through it and tragically had to pull out of the Brazil squad.
In early December 2022, he underwent surgery on this knee and was ruled out for three months.
There was meltdown amongst Arsenal fans at the prospect of having to use Eddie Nketiah during Jesus’ lengthy absence as we chased the title. Eddie did ok for a bit, but ultimately his limitations were shown, and new signing Leandro Trossard came in and flourished as a false nine. When Jesus did return towards the end of March, despite having some good games, he didn’t quite demonstrate the same sharpness from earlier in the season.
He then had an entire off season and pre-season to regain this sharpness and looked fit and raring to go in some of our friendlies in the US. Our 5-3 victory over Barcelona stands out, where his explosiveness looked reignited.
He looked like the Jesus we had seen in the first few months of last season, and in our pre-season prediction podcast, I predicted him to be our top goalscorer and player of the season.
I was that confident that we had prime Gabriel Jesus back.
However, just days before the Community Shield, these knee problems resurfaced and he missed the beginning of this season. He’s gone onto have a further two knee injuries in 2024, missing a further 35 days of action.
In total, he’s missed 158 days through knee injuries in the least 18 months. In the five seasons prior to him joining Arsenal, he’d missed a total of 168 days through injury.
158 in 18 months, and 168 in 5 years.
He hadn’t previously been an injury prone player, but he clearly hasn’t been able to shake off this knee problem. Aside from some brilliant displays in the Champions League group stage earlier this season, he hasn’t played with the same explosiveness that we’re used to.
You can see it in his game. While I think the combination play has remained at a high level, he’s still able to drop in and contribute to the build-up, and his pressing work is still elite, this has come to the detriment of his goal threat.
His non-penalty expected goals per 90 has dropped to 0.38, placing him in the 57th percentile from this metric. He’s gone from getting great chances at a high rate, to barely being above average at this.
This has inevitably led to a reduced goal tally. Four league goals in 1,451 minutes this season equates to 0.25 goals per 90, one every four games as opposed to the one in two he had produced, putting him in the 23rd percentile for this metric.
This simply isn’t a good enough return for a team fighting for major honours.
A physically declining striker who can facilitate deep build-up but to the detriment of his ability to still be a goal threat in the box. Remind you of anyone?
There are murmurs that he’ll need another knee operation in the summer. On the one hand, that gives me hope that his form this season is merely a result of playing through injury and we can see him get back to his best next season. On the other, it does suggest to me that maybe Arsenal aren’t willing to take that risk on a player they are paying a considerable amount. If they can reinvest in someone who doesn’t carry that risk, maybe that’s why they’re willing to move on from him.
I think they also believe that Kai Havertz is capable of taking his place in the squad on a permeant basis. And that brings me on to the other reason for Jesus’ demise; the emergence of Kai as a nine.
We obviously initially brought Havertz in to predominantly play the left eight role, but as Jesus was injured and Eddie was phased out, the German got his chance at nine, and we’ve not looked back.
As I outlined in a video I did talking about Havertz, which you should check out, Kai has thrived in this role, and has produced nearing on elite output. He’s been able to drop in and contribute to the build-up like Jesus, but perhaps to an even higher level, which is to be expected given the time he’s spent as a ten and an eight in the past.
He has the athleticism to also feature in the press and also still find himself stretching teams by running in behind and be a goal threat in the box.
Crucially, however, Havertz at nine has allowed Mikel Arteta to develop his system tactically and move away from an excellent, but fundamentally flawed, Oleksandr Zinchenko.
Arteta’s Arsenal in possession shape has in the past involved Zinchenko inverting into the left-hand side of midfield, forming a box alongside the six and two eights more advanced.
While with and without Zinchenko we’ve seen variations of how this box is formed this season, Arteta appears to have settled in recent weeks on utilising more traditional full-backs, and having the left eight drop in next to the six, with Havertz dropping into form the final corner of the box, as a dual ten with Odegaard.
This provides Ben White with even more overlapping freedom on the right, and allows Takehiro Tomiyasu or Jakub Kiwior to take up more advanced positions on the left.
Whether Jesus could fit into this dual ten system in the way Havertz does, who knows, but Havertz is certainly perfect for the role.
So, not only has Jesus faltered physically, something we are unsure at to whether he can recover from, we’ve also evolved past him as a team to an extent.
So are Arsenal right to listen to offers for him? In the very literal sense, almost everybody in the squad has a price, barring maybe William Saliba, Declan Rice, Odegaard and Saka. So, yes, if a good offer is to come in, you take it.
However, in the more nuanced sense, I think I’d personally say no. We already bemoan a lack of forward depth that we trust. If we let Jesus go, we’re losing another who we’d then have to replace, on top of the other additions we already need in the forward line.
There’s a chance Jesus can get back to his best, or even if he can get somewhere near it after his summer operation, then he’s a player worth having in the squad.
On the flip side, I wouldn’t begrudge the club for not wanting to risk this and for wanting to cut ties with a player who may continue to struggle with fitness and we’re paying huge wages to.
Ultimately, it comes down to the medical projections of the player. Do they believe this niggling knee issue is something to be concerned about for a 27-year-old, or do they believe he can regain his sharpness?
Yes, I am kind of sitting on the fence, but it’s hard to be definitive when we don’t hold all the information. Essentially though, I think the club have enough justification to sell at a reasonable price, even if it’s not my preferred outcome.
Comments