By Alfie Cairns Culshaw (Chief Editor)
Just seventeen days ago, Arsenal brushed aside a competent Brighton side 2-0 at the Emirates, in a performance dubbed one of the best in Mikel Arteta's tenure in North London. The result saw us regain our place at the top of the League, and move five points clear of a Manchester City side wilting and set to undergo a gruelling week in Saudi Arabia. Many of the statistical models and bookmakers had us as clear favourites to lift the Premier League title in May.
Fast forward to just over two weeks later, and the Arsenal balloon has been burst. The mood around the club has been deflated after back to back defeats to West Ham and Fulham. We now sit five points adrift of a rampant Liverpool, and level on points with Pep Guardiola's side.
Thankfully, a relatively light January awaits, with a two week winter break and trip to Dubai proceeding an FA Cup tie with Liverpool on Sunday. This gives Arteta and his players a chance to reset and recover, with several players clearly in need of a break from the physical and mental ordeal that is playing every three to four days. It's gone somewhat under the radar that the majority of our squad are partaking in their first campaign where they are expected to play as frequently as this. In years gone by, our key players were afforded the luxury of midweek rests as we took on Europa League fodder, but with the introduction of the Champions League, their workload has increased considerably. Certain members of the squad appear to not be coping too well with this adaptation.
Thus, all the more reason to be focusing on what coincides with this sparsely fixtured month: the transfer window. In years gone by, we've approached this window in differing ways and most likely learnt from our mistakes. In 2021/22, we neglected the needs of the squad, made no signings, despite a clear need for defensive reinforcements and perhaps a striker, and ultimately missed out on a place in the top four. Last January, we opted to make three additions, all of whom strengthened the depth of the squad in key areas. While we eventually missed out on the title, we're well aware this was largely down to losing both William Saliba and Takehiro Tomiyasu to injury at the same time, rather than our business in the winter window.
This time around, with so much potentially on the line, we must act quickly and effectively. The squad looks threadbare in certain areas, while lacking in quality in others, where certain players are overburdened.
So, what should we look to do this month in the transfer market?
Sell (an academy player)
Due to our rather frivolous summer window and previous few windows, there are reports suggesting that Arsenal must make a significant sale or two before investing again, to avoid breaching Financial Fair Play legislation.
This elicits the idea of who we could possibly move on this month, someone who carries significant value and would help balance the books. The obvious answer is an academy player, given any potential sale would register as pure profit in relation to FFP.
We currently have three who fit this criteria, all of whom could attract interest and would most likely be open to a move away. Eddie Nketiah, Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson have all been on the periphery of the squad this season, and their potential departures could sanction a drastic upgrade in these positions.
Smith Rowe has just returned from injury, and given his very, very limited opportunities in the last eighteen months, is most likely not at his most valuable as a potential saleable asset. Arteta has essentially determined that he is an eight now, and this feels like a position in which we are well stacked at the minute. Perhaps we'll make an ambitious move here in the summer, but for now at least, you'd expect Smith Rowe to continue as part of the squad. If he can rediscover his excellent box crashing abilities and aggressive ball carrying, there is still a role for him in this Arsenal side, or at least elsewhere, and for a good fee, once he's been able to advertise these attributes.
This leaves the more likely departures in Nketiah and Nelson. Both are reportedly attracting interest, and if Arsenal were able to attract a sizeable offer for either, it would validate the large contracts both have been given in the last year and a half.
A fee in excess of £40 million for Eddie is realistic, and rumours indicate that Arsenal would be more than ready to cash in if they were to receive such a proposal. As an English, homegrown striker who has demonstrated he can score goals regularly at senior level, he makes for an attractive proposition to an array of Premier League clubs.
Despite this obvious goal-scoring ability, Eddie lacks several other aspects to his game to make him an effective foil for the physically vulnerable Gabriel Jesus. His hold-up play remains regressive, with his heavy touch to take him away from defenders often regressing the play, rather than pinning the defender and facilitating ball progression. He's often found isolated, focusing primarily on his own goal-scoring movements, rather than those that are most helpful to the team, something that Marcelo Bielsa highlighted in his short spell at Leeds.
It's clear that when Jesus is not firing or is unfit, Eddie is not a sufficient alternative to the Brazilian, and Arsenal struggle in his absence. Given the number 14's potential value in the transfer market, he'd be my preference in terms of a significant sale.
As for Nelson, there is a case to be made to cash in on him, regardless of what happens with Eddie. At least with the latter, he has played meaningful minutes this campaign, whereas Nelson has been limited to just 109 in the league. Arteta clearly does not trust the wide forward, which means selling him and acquiring someone the Spaniard does have faith in would be advisable. At the moment, we're allocating a considerable outlay in wages to Nelson, which his playing time simply doesn't justify.
While the likes of Aaron Ramsdale and Jakub Kiwior have both also been linked with moves away, it's uncertain the impact their potential sales would have on FFP, and neither represent desirable sales to the club in January. Given Arsenal's lack of depth in defensive areas, Kiwior remains important and will be called upon, while the sale of Ramsdale would then require a search for another goalkeeper, and the Englishman's potential suitors may be more willing to break the bank for him in the Summer.
Sign a defender
Bolstering the squad in the defensive area of the pitch feels absolutely imperative in this window. Arsenal are currently operating with a selection of four fit and available defenders that aren't Cedric Soares- Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes, Ben White and Kiwior.
While the extent of Oleksandr Zinchenko's calf issue is not yet known, he's at the very least expected to miss Sunday's game against Liverpool. Even if he is back to face Crystal Palace on the 20th, we're still relying on a roster of five players to fill four positions until potentially mid-February.
What makes this depleted situation worse is the vulnerabilities some of these available players have shown in recent weeks. Zinchenko has demonstrated both his defensive limitations and his tendency to make sloppy mistakes in possession, Kiwior has lacked the ability to slot into this inverted role in the Ukrainian's absence, while White has been playing with an injury for some time now, and quite evidently. While the consistency of our imperious centre-back partnership provides some solace, we're certainly experiencing something of a full-back crisis at the moment.
If Japan are to go all the way and reach the final of the Asian Cup, which is very plausible given their relative quality in comparison to the rest of the teams in that continent, then Tomiyasu will not return to action for us until we travel to Burnley on February 17th. While he can still play a prominent part in the rest of our season, the next month or so (which is only actually five games) is looking perilous in defence.
There are some reports suggesting Jurrien Timber will make a miraculous recovery from his ACL injury and be ready to play for us as early as March, but that feels fanciful to me.
With all this in mind, we absolutely have to make an addition as early as possible, while we have the opportunity to do so. There have been links to some left-sided defenders, but my preference would still be addressing the right-side. We currently have Saliba and White as our strictly right-sided players, with Gabriel, Kiwior and Zinchenko all as options on the left. Tomiyasu can and will obviously feature on both sides, meaning there is an imbalance of options in this Arsenal squad.
While we can make do and mend with Kiwior and Zinchenko for a month or so before Tomi returns, White is going to have to play every minute while still recovering from an injury. Saliba is in the same position as the former Brighton man, although I feel slightly more at ease with that. Regardless, the situation screams short-term right-back/centre-back hybrid to me, someone who doesn't impact Timber and Tomiyasu from playing major roles next season, but provides an immediate solution to our problem. Who that player is I don't know, and maybe I'm the fanciful one, but that's what I'd be looking for in the club's position.
Sign a forward
This one is not quite as pressing as a defensive reinforcement, but is a potential acquisition that could raise the ceiling of the squad and really push us towards the major honours we desperately want this campaign. Perhaps not feasible given the financial conundrum we find ourselves in, but if there's any way to bring in a marquee forward in the next 28 days then we should do it.
Again, as alluded to in the sale section, and contrasting to the defensive side of the pitch, we do have depth in forward areas, just seemingly not trusted depth in the managers eyes.
Liverpool's emphatic victory over Newcastle really highlighted to me the quality they have in their carousel of attacking players. Stalling at 1-1, they were able to call upon Diogo Jota and Coady Gakpo off the bench, having started Mo Salah, Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez. That assortment of attacking quality is a world apart from our options.
If we are to keep up with Klopp's men and City, who themselves can pick from Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku and Bernardo Silva, then I think we have to add another quality forward.
Up until our game against Fulham on New Year's Eve when Eddie was picked over Jesus, Arteta has opted to start the Brazilian, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli on every single occasion in which they've been fit for Champions League and Premier League games (PSV dead rubber aside). There is very little rotation, which is possibly leading to the trio becoming burnt out and unable to escape poor runs of form.
The profile of forward varies from person to person, but generally there is consensus amongst the fanbase that one needs to be added. My preference is still an explosive wide player who can be used on either side, and is a close alternative to both Saka and Martinelli. Many feel a more central option who will guarantee goals would elevate this team, and I feel their sentiments even if I disagree. In an ideal world, we could do both, although that feels incredibly far-fetched in this window, particularly if we get the defender we need.
If we can add a defender and forward in this month, then my optimism going into the rest of the season that we can achieve something special will be through the roof. Talk of a midfield acquisition feels unlikely, with a mini midfield rebuild likely to come in the summer once Thomas Partey, Mo Elneny and Jorginho have all departed.
Let's get some things done Edu and Mikel.
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