By Alfie Cairns Culshaw (Chief Editor)
As great as Arsenal's start to the new season has been, a theme appears to be emerging. Mikel Arteta's side are absolutely brilliant when the game is even, but quite average when we either have the lead or are behind.
I think we can quite clearly see this with the eye test, that we've often struggled to extend leads and play our football when we're on top, while we've been excellent at getting the lead in the first place. In just two games this season have we failed to score the first goal (Fulham and Manchester United).
However, this theme was made more stark to me and this article was ultimately prompted by Scott Willis' (@oh_that_crab) tweet that demonstrated Arsenal's xG performance in various game states.
As this graph illustrates, when the scoreline is even, we have both an elite defence and elite attack. We're right out there in the top right-hand corner with Manchester City and significantly ahead of the rest of the pack. We often come out of the blocks quickly and find early goals- in nine of our eleven league games we've opened the scoring within the first 35 minutes.
Arteta clearly instructs his teams to press early and play with intensity from the first minute. We often see our press at it's most effective in the opening 20 minutes and thus we often see us create high quality chances from turnovers in this period. We're able to impose our principles on the opposition from the offset, dominating possession and territory and suppressing shots on our own goal.
We're also able to revamp the pressure if we've been pegged back by an equaliser and quickly find a goal to take us back into the lead (Fulham, Aston Villa and Liverpool games are good examples of this). Being this effective when we need a goal to put us in the ascendancy is definitely a good thing and a sign of a very good team.
On the flip side, this graph indicates that when we're either narrowly behind or narrowly in front, we produce league average defensive metrics and below league average attacking metrics. We struggle to build on our narrow leads and often play within ourselves, while still largely maintaining control but conceding a slightly higher volume of shots and a few good quality ones.
Of course, some context needs to be applied. We've spent 366 minutes at an even game state this season, equating to 37% of our total minutes. We've spent just 6% of minutes behind in games (and just 1.5% of minutes behind more than one goal) and 57% of the time in the lead, with 31% of the time in a single goal lead.
This means a significant amount of the time we're able to double our lead relatively quickly, although this has been diminishing in recent games. In the six games we won between the opening day fixture against Crystal Palace and the Liverpool victory, we never spent more than 29 minutes in just a one goal lead as we were able to extend our lead. In the game state of more than a one goal advantage, we've played with the freedom and assurance you'd expect.
It's in recent matches that we've really struggled when holding a narrow lead. Against Liverpool, Leeds and Southampton, we spent 55, 55 and 54 minutes respectively in a one-goal lead, unable to extend our lead in any of them. In all three we've had periods where it's been clear that we've struggled to control the game and struggled to create shots, while allowing the opponent to fight back.
Against Liverpool, we produced just one shot between opening the scoring in the first minute and Darwin Nunez' equaliser in the 34th minute. Against Leeds, we all saw the onslaught that Jesse Marsch's side put us under in the second half, in which they ended up accumulating 1.6 non-penalty xG- the most we've conceded in a game this season. Against Southampton, after an excellent initial period which saw us dominate, we allowed the Saints back into the game and eventually they found the equaliser.
The positive aspect is, I don't think this extends too much into when we're behind. Last season we clearly had an issue with turning results around when in a negative game state, but this season we've spent so little time behind that it's hard to really assess if we've overcome this issue. Against Fulham, it took us just eight minutes to find an equaliser after falling behind to an Aleksandr Mitrovic goal. Against United, we dominated the game after Antony's 35th minute opener, right up until Marcus Rashford put them back in front in the 66th minute, following Bukayo Saka's equaliser on the hour mark. Between these two United goals, they had just one shot.
So, the idea that we're completely unable to respond to adversity probably doesn't stand true. When teams score against us to either put us in a drawing or losing position, we tend to respond well. The situation is more bizarre. We tend to struggle when we have a narrow lead if we don't extend that lead quickly.
It's a relatively niche scenario- as I said it has only taken up just 31% of our minutes this season- but it is something that is beginning to cost us ever so slightly and could cost us substantially more in the future. So why does it happen, because we've established that it's certainly not a result of tactical instructions from Mikel Arteta?
Firstly, it's probably somewhat natural. When teams are behind they're likely to create more against you as they chase the game. They're likely to take more risks in possession and be less stringent in their defensive structure. This inevitably means that you're somewhat less likely to be able to contain them.
Another aspect that makes it somewhat inevitable is the fact that the opponent can do tactics as well. If an opposing manager has seen you take the lead and dominate a game, they can make alterations to their system or personnel which can counter some of the things you are doing well and make them better. Against Leeds, Marsch introduced Patrick Bamford for Rodrigo at half-time, which gave them the dynamic movement in behind which troubled our high line. Against Southampton, Ralph Hasenhutl switched to a 4-4-2 mid way through the first half which made their press a lot more effective.
However, as shown by the graph, Manchester City- arguably the best side in the league- are still able to contain sides when they have the lead and prevent any tactical changes from improving the opposition. It's something that absolutely elite teams are great at, and perhaps the one area that is currently inhibiting us from being in that elite bracket.
City largely do this by passing teams to death and essentially just preventing their opponents from having the ball. We often struggle to exert this kind of control late in games when holding a slender lead. We did, however, manage this in the final 15 minutes against Liverpool, when we managed 78% of the ball when they really ought to be pushing for an equaliser.
Against Leeds and Southampton, our passing became sloppy and our distances were not what they should've been. Given the general pattern of us starting quickly and fading late in games, this can probably largely be attributed to fatigue, with the addition of European football this season clearly affecting the stamina and durability of a lot of our players.
Obviously, Arteta has not instructed his side to play sloppily and to ditch the normally short distances that make our side function so well. He cited this after the Southampton game:
"We were really good in the first half and totally controlled the game. In the second half we stopped doing the simple things right. We gave ourselves problems with the amount of giveaways, especially in possession."
Clearly, it's both physical and psychological factors. The fitness and fatigue caused by the congested fixture schedule and the intensity we play with early in games. The slightly vulnerable and inexperienced mentality that causes our players to become flustered somewhat in possession, particularly in away atmospheres.
It's clear that despite tactical changes made by the opposition, we are capable of playing our football and overcoming them. It genuinely just does feel like fitness issues and soft factors that are causing this inability to play well when holding narrow leads.
And that's ultimately a positive thing because it's fixable. When we are able to add to our squad in January, and add long-term absentees Mohamed Elneny and Emile Smith-Rowe back into the mix, we should suffer less from fatigue and our team will continue to mature mentally.
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