By Alfie Cairns Culshaw (Chief Editor)
Ok, this is going to be a controversial one, I accept.
“Arsenal need a striker,” has become the prominent narrative in the public sphere of late, regarding how we approach this summer’s transfer window.
And I’m here to tell you why we don’t.
German philosopher, Jurgen Habermas, the man who theorised the idea of the public sphere, argued in later revisitations to the concept, that the sphere often comes to the incorrect consensus.
And I think the ‘Arsenal transfer’ public sphere has got it wrong here.
Yes, I’m being slightly deliberately provocative with my strong stance, I do in fact believe that in an ideal world of course we’d add more depth in this position and perhaps upgrade what we already have, although I think this is more difficult than some seem to think.
However, with the tightening of PSR and given how much we have spent in recent windows, I don’t think we’ll have the luxury of being able to spend frivolously in the upcoming window.
And that means we have to prioritise. For me, an explosive wide player and a reliable eight who can offer more ball progression than Kai Havertz does in this role, with similar off the ball qualities, should be prioritised over a striker.
I’ve got several reasons why I think these should be the priority, with Sunday’s game at the Etihad highlighting a lot of these reasons, but firstly, why does everyone want a striker so much?
The answer, very clearly, is the desire to have an elite goalscorer within the squad. Someone who will guarantee you 20+ goals every season. And I get that. It’s comforting to possess a player who you know will consistently chip in with plenty of goals, and you’ll ultimately see near the top of the scoring charts in the league.
However, do we actually need this? We clearly do not have a goalscoring issue. Last season, our 88 goals was more than we’ve ever scored in a Premier League season. This season, at the time of recording, we’re the top scorers in the league with 72, and are on course to be around the 88 mark again.
We score a lot of goals with our current set-up, and part of the reason for this is how capable our striker is in the build-up and in the press, whether it’s Havertz, Gabi Jesus or Leo Trossard.
Why waste a potentially huge outlay on a player who may get you 25 goals, but may not bring the other aspects of the game that we want from our striker, and in turn potentially affect the total goal output of the team?
In short, why attempt to fix what isn’t broken?
And I know what some people are screaming at me, just sign a striker who can do these things but also score more goals than our current crop of forwards. If you can point to that player on the market right now, then fair enough.
But personally, I’m not convinced by any of our potential targets. I’ve watched a lot of Victor Osimhen, and as good as he is, I don’t think he’s good enough to justify the potential quoted prices, and I also think he lacks the technical quality required to operate in our system and in the tight spaces against low blocks in the Premier League.
Benjamin Sesko could be one to become elite in the future, but at the moment he looks too raw to elevate our level. Victor Gyokores is an interesting option but given his career path I’d be sceptical about his ability to move the needle for us next season. I think this season may prove to be a bit of a mirage with regards to his level.
I’d love Alexander Isak, but again with the quoted prices I can’t justify it as I feel there are bigger issues in the squad.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a position we’ll need to address in perhaps 12 to 24 months, as our strikers age. But for this upcoming window, it just isn’t a priority.
And what about our current crop of strikers? What’s actually wrong with them?
Everyone will say finishing. We lack a ‘killer in front of goal’. While the evidence has shown that Jesus certainly isn’t this, both Havertz and Trossard are currently outperforming their non-penalty expected goals, as are Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard.
As a squad, we’ve currently scored 59 non-penalty and non-own goal goals from 51.2 non-penalty xG. That makes us better finishers than both City and Liverpool on the data this season, both of whom possess these so-called killers in Erling Haaland and Mo Salah.
We don’t have a finishing problem with our forwards in general.
Some people are attached to the idea of finding more variation in our striking options. But I actually feel that our current cohort of Jesus, Havertz and Trossard all offer us something different.
Havertz has shown he’s an excellent option in the big games, providing a physical and aerial focal point, with great movement in behind to exploit the space big teams leave. On the flip side, Trossard has been an excellent false nine option against low blocks, particularly when he has runners in behind, often dropping deep to get involved in tight spaces.
Jesus is capable of doing a bit of both and is ideal when you want to suffocate your opposition with an intense press. Yes, he can’t stay fit, but that’s why you have Trossard and Havertz in the squad.
If you can get 15-20 great Jesus games in a season, you’re going to be in a good place. Just look at the first half of last season, where he tore it up starting every game before the World Cup as our nine.
It’s also worth pointing out that we’ve been one of the best teams in the world this season, and that’s with our current striking options. So if we’re to bring in a player, the needle they’d have to move would be taking us from nearly the best, to definitively the best side in the world.
That player isn’t on the market, unless we somehow brought Kylian Mbappe in.
We’ve looked excellent regardless of which of the three has been playing up front for us this season. Do you know when we haven’t looked at our best? When either one of our wide forwards have been out injured, or at least not fully fit or have been out of form.
This weekend’s game at the Etihad exemplified this for me. With Saka clearly not fully fit and Martinelli starting on the bench, we simply didn’t have the threat in behind to stretch City. Every time Martinelli hasn’t been available, we’ve struggled to stretch teams.
The pair are so overburdened in this team, and that has ultimately led to them eventually suffering from fitness issues and thus us suffering because of this.
Trossard has come in and we’ve made do, but every time he’s started out wide, we see that he’s an interior player. He can’t hug the touchline and offer real threat with direct running and movement in behind.
Reiss Nelson possess some of these traits, but he’s unfortunately just a step below in terms of quality.
To me, this just highlights how imperative it is that we bring in a player who can rotate in and out with Saka and Martinelli, who relieve our over reliance on them.
Look at all of Pep’s city sides and count how many elite level wingers he’s had at his disposal. They all come in and out of the side, on a carousel. Sterling, Sane, Mahrez, Foden, Grealish, Bernardo Silva, Doku, Palmer, Ferran Torres, Jesus. They’ve all been a part of Pep’s winger rotation at certain points.
Remember, we’re trying to be the best team in the world. Adding another somewhat decent striker when we already have variety and depth there isn’t going to help us attain that. Adding an elite explosive wide player who can potentially operate on either side could do so.
For me, we should go all out for Rafael Leao, which perhaps I’ll make a video on, but I also like the idea of cheaper options such as Nico Williams.
So, in summary, for the reasons I’ve addressed, Arsenal should not sign a striker. We’ve got options there already, they’re all good and different, we already score a lot of goals, the striker market isn’t that good at the moment, and we need a wide forward much more desperately.
Please, please let me know why I’m wrong. Because I’m genuinely intrigued. I know this isn’t the popular opinion, I’m just yet to hear anything other than, ‘we need a killer’, which feels like a weak, nothingy point to me, given the evidence I’ve outlined here.